Inflation nowcast
Next month's inflation print, called before it lands
For each country we forecast the next monthly consumer-price inflation print (year over year) before the statistics office releases it. The forecast is stored with the date we made it and never edited. When the print lands, we grade it against a naive benchmark: "next month equals this month".
Live record
No forecast has been graded yet. 144 forecasts are waiting on their print; the first ones are graded when those prints are released, within weeks.
Backtest — history, not live
Replayed over 14,424 months in 149 countries from 2018-01, using only data released before each forecast: mean absolute error 0.695pp against the benchmark's 0.713pp. That is a small edge (2.6%), not a breakthrough: the rule beats the benchmark in 107 of 149 countries and loses in some years.
- CPI rows are today's vintage; revisions are not replayed.
- Most historical release dates are estimates, not observed dates.
- FX levels exist only from 2025, so the FX input is live on 735 of 17,454 historical pairs.
Waiting on the print
144 forecasts are made and waiting on their print. Subscribers see them before release; everyone sees them here once they are graded.
Graded forecasts
Nothing graded yet.