Country
Luxembourg LUX
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve54.6
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical50.3
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth49.0
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity53.0
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance83.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Luxembourg sovereign credibility, in brief
Luxembourg scores 65.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 65–80. That ranks it 4 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 90th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.2% near 2.0% target — on target | adequate credibility (66/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctLuxembourg's credibility position is solid: inflation sits near target and communication is strong, but policy lags.
- Composite position: The 65.6 score rates adequate and ranks #4 of 31 in the region, 5.3 points above the 60.3 average.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 2.2% runs 0.2pp above the 2.0% point target, a small overshoot.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate is a euro-area rate set by the ECB, and the behind-the-curve score of 54.6 is the weakest input.
- Communication strength: The 76.5 communication score is the strongest component and offsets the policy lag.
- Geopolitics: The 50.3 pressure score is moderate, and most headlines do not concern Luxembourg directly.
- Watch item: The next ECB decision and the euro-area inflation print will set the policy path.
Peer context
Rank 4/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 90th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Denmark 67.8
- Netherlands 66.6
- Finland 64.9
- Moldova 64.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.7%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -0.4%
- as of 2026-05-01
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.4% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 102.0 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 0.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.4 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -32.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 90.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 65.4K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 13.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 0.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 144.3 | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 8.0% | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 349.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $147,252 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 62.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 2.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.