Country
Portugal PRT
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap91.5
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve39.7
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth42.7
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity86.0
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance67.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Portugal sovereign credibility, in brief
Portugal scores 64.1 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 81st percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.3 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.0% vs 2.0% target (+1.0pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (64/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctPortugal scores adequate at 64.1 and ranks #7 of 31 in the region, but CPI runs 1.0pp above target with the policy rate at 2.5%.
- Composite position: The 64.1 score beats the regional average of 60.3, yet the credibility gap of 91.5 is the largest component.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 3.0% sits 1.0pp above the 2.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate sits below CPI, a real rate of about -0.5pp.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 48.8, and recent headlines show no direct macro shock.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 2.0% target.
Peer context
Rank 7/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 81th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Finland 64.9
- Moldova 64.3
- Estonia 63.7
- Azerbaijan 62.9
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +5.8%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +3.9%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -2.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.4% | 2026-07-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.2 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 4.6 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.0 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 100.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.2M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -5.4% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.7 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 119.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 3.2% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 86.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $32,082 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 59.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.