Country
Estonia EST
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.1
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve71.6
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical44.7
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth30.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity43.4
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance77.2
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Estonia sovereign credibility, in brief
Estonia scores 63.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 8 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 77th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 1.5% near 2.0% target — on target | adequate credibility (64/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctEstonia ranks 8th of 31 in the region with a 63.7 composite, above the 60.3 average, but inflation is running below target.
- Composite position: A score of 63.7 places Estonia 8th of 31, 3.4 points above the regional average of 60.3.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 1.5% sits 0.5pp under the 2.0% point target, and the credibility gap scores 92.3/100.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate is set by the ECB for the euro area, and the behind-the-curve score is 71.6/100.
- Communication: The communication stance scores 76.5/100, a relative strength in this run.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 44.7/100, mostly from Russia-related headlines, several of them duplicates.
- Watch item: Reports of possible Russian pressure near Narva would lift geopolitical pressure sharply if confirmed.
Peer context
Rank 8/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 77th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Moldova 64.3
- Portugal 64.1
- Azerbaijan 62.9
- Italy 62.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -15.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- 0.0%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -3.0%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 326.3 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 0.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.5 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -2.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 90.7 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 181.4K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -17.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 1.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 0.7 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 93.5 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 0.3% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 155.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 7.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $34,418 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 66.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.