Country
United States USA
Federal Reserve
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +2.4
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap90.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve37.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication74.4
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.9
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth53.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity76.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance64.0
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
United States sovereign credibility, in brief
United States scores 62.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 8 in G10, the 88th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.4% vs 2.0% target (+1.4pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (63/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctUS credibility is adequate at 62.8 and ranks second of eight G10 peers, but inflation sits 1.4pp above target.
- Composite position: The 62.8 score beats the G10 average of 61.6.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 3.4% against a 2.0% point target drives a credibility gap score of 90.3.
- Policy stance: The 3.9% policy rate is only about 0.5pp above headline CPI, and Behind the Curve scores a weak 37.9.
- Communication: The communication stance scores a firmer 74.4 and partly offsets the gap.
- Geopolitics: Pressure reads a moderate 46.9, and the recent headlines are mostly domestic violence plus one Saudi airport attack.
- Watch item: The next CPI print, since an upside surprise would widen the gap and test the current rate.
Peer context
Rank 2/8 in G10 · 88th percentile
Region avg 61.6 · best 67.5 · worst 59.6
Ranked either side
- Sweden 67.5
- United Kingdom 61.8
- Germany 61.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -3.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.5%
- as of 2026-06-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 5.2% | 2026-10-08 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 153.6 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 219.3 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 414.2 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 3.9 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 70.6M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.8 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 25.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $90,027 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 115.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 62.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.