Country
Indonesia IDN
BI
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +2.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve47.6
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-05 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth28.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity61.4
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance45.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Indonesia sovereign credibility, in brief
Indonesia scores 58.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 4 of 5 in Southeast Asia, the 40th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.8 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.9% near 2.5% target — on target | credibility under pressure (58/100) | slightly improving.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctIndonesia's credibility score is moderate at 58.0, level with the regional average and ranked fourth of five.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 2.9% sits inside BI's band but 0.4pp above the 2.5% target, scoring 100/100 on the gap measure.
- Inflation: The reading is inside the band, so inflation is not breaching the target range.
- Policy stance: The policy rate is 5.8%, with a moderate behind-the-curve score of 47.6.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 46.5, driven mainly by haze and fire coverage and a dispute with Malaysia.
- Watch item: Fire and haze escalation, and whether it feeds into food prices or BI's rate path.
Peer context
Rank 4/5 in Southeast Asia · 40th percentile
Region avg 58.0 · best 62.6 · worst 50.4
Ranked either side
- Thailand 60.7
- Malaysia 58.1
- Philippines 50.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -7.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +0.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 137.8 | 2026-08-01 | OECD |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 5.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.6M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 40.2% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 1.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.5 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 43.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.4% | 2023-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 31.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $5,060 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 30.0% | 2009-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 67.3% | 2023-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.