Country
Poland POL
NBP
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d -2.8
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve36.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical42.7
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Growth66.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Liquidity76.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Governance65.0
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Poland sovereign credibility, in brief
Poland scores 63.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 9 in East Europe, the 89th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.6% vs 2.5% target (+1.1pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (64/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctPoland ranks second of nine East European central banks, but inflation at 3.6% sits 1.1pp above target and the 3.8% policy rate leaves little real restraint.
- Composite position: The score of 63.6 is adequate and sits above the regional average of 58.1.
- Credibility gap: The gap score of 92.7 is high, driven by inflation running above the 2.5% target.
- Inflation vs target: CPI of 3.6% is 1.1pp above target, so the NBP has not yet delivered on its mandate.
- Policy stance: The 3.8% rate is only about 0.2pp above CPI, and the behind-the-curve score of 36 shows a small lag.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 42.7, and recent headlines centre on school attacks and Kremlin information campaigns.
- Watch item: The next NBP rate decision and CPI print will show whether the policy rate catches up with inflation.
Peer context
Rank 2/9 in East Europe · 89th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.3 · worst 45.5
Ranked either side
- Czech Republic 70.3
- Hungary 62.8
- Serbia 62.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +9.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +4.5%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +4.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.4 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 12.5 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.3 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 116.7 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.9M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 8.6% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.9 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 115.5 | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 4.1% | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 97.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $28,420 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 58.7% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.