Country
Russia RUS
CBR
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap82.9
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve41.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth37.8
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity65.1
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance28.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Russia sovereign credibility, in brief
Russia scores 54.1 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 9 in East Europe, the 33rd percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.5 points over the past seven days. CPI 6.3% vs 4.0% target (+2.3pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (54/100) | slightly weakening.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctRussia ranks seventh of nine in East Europe with a composite of 54.1, below the regional average of 58.1, and its credibility gap is the main weakness.
- Credibility gap: The 82.9 score reflects CPI of 6.3%, 2.3pp above the 4.0% point target.
- Policy stance: A 14.0% policy rate is restrictive against current inflation, though behind-the-curve risk scores a moderate 41.9.
- Communication signal: No scored CB statements exist, so forward guidance cannot be measured.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 46.0, with recent headlines centered on Ukraine talks and sanctions relief.
- Watch item: The next CBR rate decision and any US-Russia sanctions deal could both shift the inflation and credibility picture.
Peer context
Rank 7/9 in East Europe · 33th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.4 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -21.3%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +7.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -1.8%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 301.8 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 161.6 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 86.4 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 1.5 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 70M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 11.0% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 16.8 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 33.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 2.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 2.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 16.8% | 2022-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $17,547 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 17.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 62.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.