Country
Czech Republic CZE
CNB
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve57.8
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-05 · coverage: gold
Communication77.4
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical45.2
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth61.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity66.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance71.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Czech Republic sovereign credibility, in brief
Czech Republic scores 70.4 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 65–80. That ranks it 1 of 9 in East Europe, the 100th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 1.9% near 2.0% target — on target | adequate credibility (70/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctCzech credibility is strong: the CNB ranks first in East Europe, with inflation on target and a 3.8% policy rate.
- Composite position: A 70.4 composite rates adequate and beats the regional average of 58.1.
- Credibility gap: The gap scores 100 because CPI of 1.9% sits just 0.1pp below the 2.0% target.
- Inflation vs target: Headline inflation is effectively on target, so the CNB faces little pressure to move.
- Policy stance: At 3.8%, the rate sits about 1.9pp above CPI, but a 57.8 behind-the-curve score flags moderate lag.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 45.2, and most tagged headlines are domestic election results rather than direct shocks.
- Watch item: The next CNB rate decision, and whether the 77.4 communication score holds if inflation moves off target.
Peer context
Rank 1/9 in East Europe · 100th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.4 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.8%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.9%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +2.1%
- as of 2026-05-01
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 102.6 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 0.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 4.9 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 103.9 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 632.6K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -19.4% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 1.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.6 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 103.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 128.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 2.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 2.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $35,917 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 61.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.