Country
Norway NOR
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d -0.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap90.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve52.4
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-02 · coverage: silver
Communication80.8
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth50.4
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity70.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance84.0
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Norway sovereign credibility, in brief
Norway scores 68.4 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 65–80. That ranks it 1 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 100th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.3% vs 2.0% target (+1.3pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (68/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctNorway ranks first in its region, but inflation at 3.3% sits 1.3 points above target.
- Composite position: Norway scores 68.4, rated adequate and above the regional average of 60.3.
- Credibility gap: The gap score of 90.3 is high because CPI runs well above the 2.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The 4.5% policy rate gives a real rate of about 1.2 points, and the behind-the-curve score is 52.4.
- Communication strength: The communication score of 80.8 partly offsets the inflation problem.
- Geopolitical pressure: The score of 48.4 is mid-range, and recent headlines have little direct bearing on the macro outlook.
- Near-term watch: The next CPI print against the 2.0% target will shape whether policy stays on hold.
Peer context
Rank 1/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 100th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.4 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Denmark 67.8
- Netherlands 66.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -4.1%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +6.3%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +11.6%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -0.1%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 4.3% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.5 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 14.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 10.3 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 104.6 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.3M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -24.8% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 94.0 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | -2.3% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 79.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $94,594 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 65.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.