Country
Mongolia MNG
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap60.9
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.9
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth56.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity39.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance49.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Mongolia sovereign credibility, in brief
Mongolia scores 52.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 11 of 14 in East Asia & Pacific, the 29th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 12.5% vs 8.0% target (+4.5pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (52/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctMongolia ranks 11th of 14 in East Asia & Pacific, with CPI running 4.5 points above target.
- Composite position: The composite score is 52.0 (moderate), just below the regional average of 54.8.
- Inflation gap: CPI of 12.5% sits 4.5pp above the 8.0% point target, lifting the credibility gap to 60.9.
- Policy stance: The feed has no policy rate or central bank statements, so the stance cannot be scored.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 48.9, and the headlines are mostly non-macro, led by a plague scare in neighboring Irkutsk.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 8% target, and any sign that the Irkutsk plague reports disrupt border trade.
Peer context
Rank 11/14 in East Asia & Pacific · 29th percentile
Region avg 54.8 · best 65.6 · worst 16.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +6.6%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +1.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 130.9 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -10.4% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.8 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 11.7% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 6.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 400.2K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -22.6% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.3 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 130.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 181.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $7,108 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 43.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 61.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.