Country
Pakistan PAK
SBP
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap67.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical41.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Growth50.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity51.4
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance27.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Pakistan sovereign credibility, in brief
Pakistan scores 50.2 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 7 in South Asia, the 14th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 10.3% vs 7.0% target (+3.3pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (50/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctPakistan ranks last of seven in South Asia, with a credibility gap of 67.7 driven by inflation 3.3pp above target.
- Composite position: The composite score of 50.2 trails the regional average of 54.9.
- Inflation vs target: CPI of 10.3% sits 3.3pp above the 7.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The data has no policy rate or scored SBP statements, so stance is unscored.
- Geopolitics: Pressure reads 41.4, with reported Pakistan-Afghanistan exchanges of fire in the latest feed.
- Watch item: The next CPI print and any SBP rate decision will test whether disinflation is on track.
Peer context
Rank 7/7 in South Asia · 14th percentile
Region avg 54.9 · best 59.9 · worst 50.2
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +76.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.3%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +16.1%
- as of 2026-03-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 300.5 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 150.6 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 13.2 | 2026-03-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.5M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -1.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 9.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.8 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 27.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 7.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 35.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $1,596 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 55.0% | 2000-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 55.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -2.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.