Country
Bangladesh BGD
BB
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +3.2
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap82.4
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve53.3
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-06-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical46.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth32.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity60.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance33.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Bangladesh sovereign credibility, in brief
Bangladesh scores 53.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 4 of 7 in South Asia, the 57th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 8.3% vs 6.0% target (+2.3pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (54/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctBangladesh Bank faces a wide credibility gap: inflation runs 2.3pp above target while the 4.0% policy rate sits well below CPI.
- Composite position: The 53.5 score (moderate) ranks fourth of seven in South Asia, just below the regional average of 54.9.
- Credibility gap: At 82.4, the gap is the dominant weakness, with CPI at 8.3% against a 6.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The 53.3 behind-the-curve score and a 4.0% rate point to a real policy rate near minus 4pp.
- Geopolitics: The 46.0 pressure score is moderate, driven by domestic violence and rule-of-law stories rather than direct policy shocks.
- Watch item: The next CPI print and BB's next rate decision; a hold at 4.0% would deepen the gap.
Peer context
Rank 4/7 in South Asia · 57th percentile
Region avg 54.9 · best 59.9 · worst 50.2
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -16.6%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -4.8%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 148.2 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 9.4 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 402K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -14.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 7.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.9 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 28.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.6% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 22.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $2,597 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 31.2% | 2003-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 58.9% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.