Country
Nigeria NGA
CBN
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.1
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap40.6
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-04-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical45.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Growth45.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity66.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance30.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Nigeria sovereign credibility, in brief
Nigeria scores 46.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 35–50. That ranks it 32 of 43 in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 28th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 15.4% vs 9.0% target (+6.4pp) — significant overshoot | credibility under pressure (47/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctNigeria's credibility gap is wide: inflation runs 6.4pp above target, and the composite ranks 33rd of 44 in the region.
- Composite position: The score of 46.7 (moderate) sits below the regional average of 49.3.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 15.4% is 6.4pp above the 9.0% point target, which drives a credibility gap of 40.6.
- Policy stance: The data has no policy rate and no scored CBN statements, so the stance cannot be rated.
- Geopolitics: Pressure reads 45.8, but most headlines are security and crime stories with little policy signal.
- Watch item: The next CBN rate decision and the next CPI print will show whether the gap is narrowing.
Peer context
Rank 32/43 in Sub-Saharan Africa · 28th percentile
Region avg 49.3 · best 61.7 · worst 14.1
Ranked either side
- Zimbabwe 48.2
- Angola 48.2
- Mauritania 45.5
- Equatorial Guinea 44.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -11.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +4.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -14.6%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 146.3 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 4.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 2.5 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 625.1K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.8% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 7.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.5% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 60.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $1,224 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 81.5% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.