Belarus BLR

Executive summary

Belarus maintains an adequate credibility score of 71.5/100, but faces a significant credibility gap of 99.6/100, reflecting deep concerns around policy consistency and transparency. The Central Bank lacks clear communication and policy rate data, complicating assessments of monetary stance. Geopolitical tensions remain acute, with recent events highlighting heightened risks from Russia and Ukraine, including NATO tensions, Ukrainian drone strikes, and statements from Zelensky and Lukashenko. These developments, combined with a weak inflation control mechanism, pose substantial risks to macroeconomic stability. Belarus ranks 8th in Europe & Central Asia but trails behind regional peers in credibility. Institutional investors should remain cautious, as geopolitical volatility and opaque policy management could undermine long-term economic confidence.

Peer context

Rank 18/30 in Europe & Central Asia · 43th percentile

Region avg 59.1 · best 68.5 · worst 53.0