Country
Spain ESP
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -1.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap78.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve20.1
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical46.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth44.8
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity84.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance64.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Spain sovereign credibility, in brief
Spain scores 58.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 22 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 32nd percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 4.3% vs 2.0% target (+2.3pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (59/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctSpain's credibility position is weak: inflation runs 2.3pp above target while the policy rate sits at 2.5%.
- Composite position: The 58.6/100 score is moderate, ranking #22 of 31 in the region and below the 60.3 average.
- Credibility gap: The 78.0/100 gap reflects CPI of 4.3% against a 2.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate implies a real rate near -1.8pp, which looks loose against current inflation.
- Communication: The 76.5/100 stance score is a relative strength, so the weakness sits in outcomes, not messaging.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 46.8/100, and the recent headlines are mostly domestic with little macro signal.
- Watch item: The next CPI print; a reading above 4.3% would widen the gap further.
Peer context
Rank 22/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 32th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Belarus 58.9
- Slovak Republic 58.7
- Cyprus 58.0
- Montenegro 57.0
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -7.2%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -4.2%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +3.2%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.6% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 104.6 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 142.9 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 20.6 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 104.9 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 4.3M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -9.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 112.6 | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 0.5% | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 69.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 10.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 10.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $38,627 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 105.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 58.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.