Country
Canada CAN
Bank of Canada
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d -0.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve24.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-05 · coverage: gold
Communication54.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical48.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth45.8
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Liquidity63.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Governance78.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Canada sovereign credibility, in brief
Canada scores 59.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 8 in G10, the 25th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.0% vs 2.0% target (+1.0pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (60/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctCanada ranks 7th of 8 in G10 credibility, with CPI 1.0pp above target and a policy rate below inflation.
- Composite position: The 59.7 score is moderate and trails the G10 average of 61.7.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 3.0% sits 1.0pp above the 2.0% target, which drives the 92.8 credibility gap.
- Policy stance: The 2.2% policy rate is below CPI, so real rates are negative and the stance looks accommodative.
- Geopolitics: The 48.5 pressure score rests on domestic crime and health headlines, not macro shocks.
- Watch item: The next CPI print and BoC decision will show whether policy moves toward the target.
Peer context
Rank 7/8 in G10 · 25th percentile
Region avg 61.7 · best 67.5 · worst 59.6
Ranked either side
- Switzerland 60.5
- Japan 59.7
- Australia 59.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -11.8%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +1.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +1.4%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 169.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 698.5 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 48.7 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.6 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 41.4M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 19.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 1.6 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 63.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $55,698 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 64.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 65.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.