Country
Brazil BRA
BCB
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve62.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication51.3
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical47.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Growth37.7
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Liquidity33.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Governance45.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Brazil sovereign credibility, in brief
Brazil scores 58.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 1 of 5 in South America, the 100th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.4 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.2% vs 3.0% target (+1.2pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (59/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctBrazil ranks first in South America, but inflation at 4.2% against a 3.0% target keeps credibility under pressure.
- Composite position: The 58.6 composite is moderate, 8.9 points above the regional average of 49.7.
- Credibility gap: The score is at its 100 maximum because CPI sits 1.2pp above the 3.0% target.
- Inflation vs target: Headline CPI at 4.2% is the main drag on the score.
- Policy stance: The 13.8% policy rate implies a real rate of about 9.6pp, while the behind-the-curve score of 62.9 flags a late response.
- Geopolitics: The pressure score of 47.0 is moderate, but eight of ten events carry the same unnamed conflict code, so the signal is weak.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 3.0% target will show whether the gap is closing.
Peer context
Rank 1/5 in South America · 100th percentile
Region avg 49.7 · best 58.6 · worst 19.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +2.7%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.3%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.4%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 7633.2 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 205.1 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 63.6 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 27.1M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -0.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 8.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 35.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 28.7% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $10,713 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 81.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 63.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.