Country
Sweden SWE
Riksbank
score date 2026-10-08 · 30d +0.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap90.6
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve52.5
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication50.0
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-08 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical47.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Growth58.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-08 · coverage: gold
Liquidity81.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-08 · coverage: gold
Governance81.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-08 · coverage: gold
Sweden sovereign credibility, in brief
Sweden scores 67.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 65–80. That ranks it 1 of 8 in G10, the 100th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.3 points over the past seven days. CPI 0.3% vs 2.0% target (-1.7pp) — slightly below target | adequate credibility (67/100).
As of 2026-10-08 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 4 Oct · score 8 OctSweden leads G10 peers (67.2/100) but faces mounting deflation risk that may force faster policy easing despite geopolitical turbulence.
- Credibility rank: #1 in G10 with strong institutional anchoring (90.6/100 gap score); composite adequate at 67.2/100
- Inflation crisis: CPI at 0.3% vs 2.0% target creates -1.7pp gap; deflation risk rising sharply
- Policy stance: Neutral rate (1.8%) with muted communication (50.0); behind-curve score (52.6) suggests insufficient forward guidance
- Geopolitical drag: NATO-Russia escalation (Kaliningrad threats, Ukraine strikes) and regional instability weighing on sentiment
- Near-term watch: Riksbank likely forced to signal dovish shift by year-end if CPI undershoots persist; SEK volatility expected
Peer context
Rank 1/8 in G10 · 100th percentile
Region avg 61.9 · best 67.5 · worst 59.7
Ranked either side
- United States 62.8
- United Kingdom 61.8
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +6.6%
- as of 2026-10-09
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.7%
- as of 2026-10-09
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +0.3%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +6.4%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.0% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 124.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 6.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 8.8 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 111.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.5M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -27.8% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 100.1 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 8.0% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 104.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.7% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $63,133 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 67.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 2.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.