Country
Cyprus CYP
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +2.0
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap91.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve33.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical49.2
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth54.0
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity40.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance64.3
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Cyprus sovereign credibility, in brief
Cyprus scores 58.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 23 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 29th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.9% vs 2.0% target (+0.9pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (58/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctCyprus scores a moderate 58.0, below the 60.3 regional average, and its inflation gap is the main weakness.
- Composite position: Ranks 23 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, below the regional average.
- Credibility gap: Scores 91.7 because CPI at 2.9% runs 0.9pp above the 2.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate sits with a behind-the-curve score of 33, which signals limited lag risk.
- Communication: Scores 76.5, the strongest component, and partly offsets the inflation gap.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 49.2, driven mainly by local media and political headlines.
- Watch item: The next CPI print; a reading that does not fall toward 2.0% would keep the gap wide.
Peer context
Rank 23/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 29th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Slovak Republic 58.7
- Spain 58.6
- Montenegro 57.0
- North Macedonia 56.8
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +2.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -3.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.0%
- as of 2026-05-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +2.8%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 102.3 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -6.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.5 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 27.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 114.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 135.8K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 11.1% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 0.5 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 132.6 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 7.9% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 189.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $41,783 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 65.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.