Country
Latvia LVA
score date 2026-10-11
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve52.5
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical47.2
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Growth51.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Liquidity39.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Governance68.7
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Latvia sovereign credibility, in brief
Latvia scores 61.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 11 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 68th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.4 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.6% vs 2.0% target (+0.6pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (62/100).
As of 2026-10-11 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
Latvia's adequate 61.7 composite ranks #11 of 31 in the region, but CPI sitting above target keeps its credibility under pressure.
- Composite position: Latvia scores 61.7 against a regional average of 60.3.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 2.6% runs 0.6pp above the 2.0% point target, and the credibility gap scores 92.3.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate scores 52.5 on behind-the-curve risk.
- Communication: Communication stance scores 76.5.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure reads moderate at 47.1, though all ten recent events carry the most conflictual Goldstein score of -10.
- Watch item: Latvia's request for wider border guard powers, and any follow-on border incidents, is the near-term signal to track.
Peer context
Rank 11/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 68th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Azerbaijan 62.9
- Italy 62.3
- Ireland 61.7
- Albania 61.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -19.9%
- as of 2026-10-12
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.7%
- as of 2026-10-12
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +4.0%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +6.6%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.1 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -5.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.5 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 102.0 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 158.6K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -7.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 107.1 | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 4.3% | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 129.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $26,312 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 61.6% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.