Country
Romania ROU
BNR
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +6.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap66.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve48.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical—
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth27.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity29.0
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance55.3
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Romania sovereign credibility, in brief
Romania scores 45.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 35–50. That ranks it 9 of 9 in East Europe, the 11th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 8.2% vs 2.5% target (+5.7pp) — significant overshoot | credibility under pressure (45/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctRomania ranks last of nine East European central banks, with inflation at 8.2% against a 2.5% target.
- Composite position: The score is 45.5 (moderate), 12.6 points below the regional average of 58.1.
- Credibility gap: The gap score is 66.0, which signals wide doubt that the BNR will restore price stability.
- Inflation vs target: CPI runs 5.7pp above the 2.5% target.
- Policy stance: The 6.5% policy rate sits 1.7pp below inflation, so real rates are negative and the BNR looks behind the curve (score 48.0).
- Geopolitics: No significant events occurred in the past 30 days, and no geopolitical score is available.
- Watch item: The next CPI print and any BNR rate decision will show whether policy catches up.
Peer context
Rank 9/9 in East Europe · 11th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.4 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +12.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -15.2%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -5.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 180.9 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -7.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 3.7 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 93.4 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.2M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -2.0% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.5 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 112.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | -4.8% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 76.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $22,538 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 51.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.