Country
India IND
RBI
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.4
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve21.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-07-23 · coverage: gold
Communication50.0
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical43.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth51.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity32.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance47.2
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
India sovereign credibility, in brief
India scores 52.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 5 of 7 in South Asia, the 43rd percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.4% near 4.0% target — on target | credibility under pressure (53/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctIndia's credibility is moderate: composite 52.5, fifth of seven in South Asia, just under the 54.9 regional average.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 4.4% sits 0.4pp above the 4.0% target, yet the gap scores a maxed 100/100, so check that scoring method before relying on it.
- Inflation vs target: Headline inflation is modestly above target, not far off it.
- Policy stance: A 5.2% policy rate and a 21/100 behind-the-curve score suggest the RBI is not lagging inflation.
- Geopolitics: Pressure of 43.5/100 reflects domestic unrest headlines rather than macro shocks.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 4.0% target will decide whether the gap score holds.
Peer context
Rank 5/7 in South Asia · 43th percentile
Region avg 54.9 · best 59.9 · worst 50.2
Ranked either side
- Nepal 57.5
- Bangladesh 53.5
- Maldives 51.0
- Pakistan 50.2
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +22.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.8%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +11.7%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 6.8% | 2026-07-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 168.8 | 2026-07-01 | OECD |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 152.4 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 180.3 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 7.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.4 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 17.2M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -5.0% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.9 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 46.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 18.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $2,702 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 46.5% | 2018-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 55.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.