Country
United Kingdom GBR
Bank of England
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.1
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap90.6
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve37.6
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-05 · coverage: gold
Communication57.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.7
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth40.2
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity76.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance73.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
United Kingdom sovereign credibility, in brief
United Kingdom scores 61.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 3 of 8 in G10, the 75th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.0% vs 2.0% target (+1.0pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (62/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctUK credibility is adequate at 61.8, but inflation running 1.0pp above target and a weak behind-the-curve reading leave the Bank of England exposed.
- Composite position: The score of 61.8 ranks third of eight G10 peers and sits just above the regional average of 61.6.
- Credibility gap: The gap score of 90.6/100 reflects CPI at 3.0% against a 2.0% point target.
- Inflation vs target: Inflation has stayed 1.0pp above target, the main credibility pressure in this scorecard.
- Policy stance: The policy rate is 3.8%, and the behind-the-curve score of 37.6 shows the Bank is reacting slowly.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure is moderate at 46.7, and most headline events have little macro relevance.
- Watch item: The next CPI release and MPC decision will show whether the Bank closes the gap.
Peer context
Rank 3/8 in G10 · 75th percentile
Region avg 61.6 · best 67.5 · worst 59.6
Ranked either side
- Sweden 67.5
- United States 62.8
- Germany 61.7
- Switzerland 60.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -11.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +0.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.5%
- as of 2026-06-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 142.7 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 288.6 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 20.7 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 1.4 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 3M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 3.2% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 1.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 62.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $57,602 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 130.7% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 62.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.