Country
Uzbekistan UZB
CBU
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.2
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap90.9
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical51.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth66.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity67.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance39.3
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Uzbekistan sovereign credibility, in brief
Uzbekistan scores 62.2 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 1 of 2 in Central Asia, the 100th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 6.2% vs 5.0% target (+1.2pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (62/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctUzbekistan's composite score is adequate at 62.2, but CPI runs 1.2pp above target and the input has no policy-stance data to judge the response.
- Composite position: The score of 62.2 ranks first of two in Central Asia, just above the regional average of 58.6.
- Credibility gap: The gap score of 90.9 looks high for a 1.2pp miss, and the input does not show what drives it.
- Inflation vs target: CPI is 6.2% against a 5.0% point target.
- Policy stance: There is no policy-rate series or scored CBU statement, so the stance cannot be assessed.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 51.0/100, with recent headlines mostly coded as conflict or crime.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 5.0% target, and whether the missing policy-rate data arrives.
Peer context
Rank 1/2 in Central Asia · 100th percentile
Region avg 58.6 · best 62.2 · worst 55.1
Ranked either side
- Kazakhstan 55.1
90-day trend
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 172.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 7.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 840.8K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.4% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 14.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 10.3 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 57.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.3% | 2020-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 60.5% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $3,968 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 56.2% | 2020-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.