Country
Japan JPN
Bank of Japan
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -1.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve48.1
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.1
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth51.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity26.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance78.8
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Japan sovereign credibility, in brief
Japan scores 59.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 8 of 8 in G10, the 13th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.8 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.0% near 2.0% target — on target | credibility under pressure (60/100) | slightly weakening.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctJapan's inflation sits at target, but its policy rate leaves policy behind the curve.
- Composite score: At 59.6, Japan is moderate and ranks last of 8 in G10, 2.0 points below the 61.6 average.
- Credibility gap: The score of 92.8 reflects CPI of 2.0%, exactly on the 2.0% point target.
- Inflation vs target: With the policy rate at 1.2%, real policy rates are about 0.8pp negative.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 46.1, driven mainly by one Okinawa murder-case story repeated across outlets.
- Watch item: Communication is unscored, so the next BoJ statement is the first test of its stance.
Peer context
Rank 8/8 in G10 · 13th percentile
Region avg 61.6 · best 67.5 · worst 59.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -16.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +0.8%
- as of 2026-03-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 2.9% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 114.3 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 4.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 99.2 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 78.0 | 2026-03-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.2 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 3.5M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -5.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 14.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 44.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 2.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 2.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $35,951 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 63.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 2.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.