Country
Bulgaria BGR
BNB
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +2.1
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap81.5
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve46.3
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical48.1
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Growth52.9
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Liquidity53.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Governance42.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Bulgaria sovereign credibility, in brief
Bulgaria scores 56.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 5 of 9 in East Europe, the 56th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 5.0% vs 2.0% target (+3.0pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (57/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctBulgaria is a moderate credibility case, held back by inflation running 3pp above target and a policy rate below it.
- Composite position: Ranks 5th of 9 in East Europe, just below the regional average of 58.1.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 5.0% against a 2.0% target gives a high gap score of 81.5.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate sits below inflation, so policy looks behind the curve (46.3).
- Communication strength: At 76.5, communication is the strongest component and partly offsets the policy lag.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate (48.1), with drone attacks on ships near Bulgaria the main event, still unattributed.
- Near-term watch: Any attribution of the ship attacks, and whether the next BNB decision responds to inflation.
Peer context
Rank 5/9 in East Europe · 56th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.3 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +75.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +0.3%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.5%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -4.5%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 106.0 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -5.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 2.5 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 89.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 448.4K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -3.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.2 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 128.6 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 7.2% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 102.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 55.1% | 2022-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $20,328 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 55.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.