Country
Chile CHL
BCCh
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -2.8
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve37.1
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical45.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth34.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity45.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance65.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Chile sovereign credibility, in brief
Chile scores 55.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 4 of 5 in South America, the 40th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.5 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.1% vs 3.0% target (+1.1pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (56/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctChile's credibility gap of 92.7 is the dominant signal, with inflation at 4.1% just above its 3% target band.
- Composite position: Chile scores 55.8 (moderate), ranking fourth of five in South America and above the regional average of 49.7.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 4.1% sits 1.1pp above the 3.0% midpoint and 0.1pp above the ±1pp band ceiling.
- Policy stance: The policy rate holds at 4.5%, and a behind-the-curve score of 37.1 suggests the BCCh is not far behind inflation.
- Communication gap: No central bank statements were scored, so communication credibility is unmeasured.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 45.4, driven mainly by domestic crime, with flood evacuations the only macro-relevant event.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 4.0% band ceiling is the key near-term test.
Peer context
Rank 4/5 in South America · 40th percentile
Region avg 49.7 · best 58.6 · worst 19.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -8.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +2.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +1.9%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 113.2 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -1.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 306.8 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 6.9 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 4.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.0 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.9M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -1.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.2 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 65.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 9.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $17,995 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 13.1% | 2000-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 62.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.