Country
Costa Rica CRI
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -1.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap89.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve36.8
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.7
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth46.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity44.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance65.0
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Costa Rica sovereign credibility, in brief
Costa Rica scores 57.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 8 of 20 in Latin America & Caribbean, the 65th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI -0.3% vs 3.0% target (-3.3pp) — well below target | credibility under pressure (57/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctCosta Rica scores a moderate 57.0, but inflation running 3.3pp below target is its main credibility risk.
- Composite position: The 57.0 score ranks 8th of 20 in Latin America & Caribbean, above the regional average of 51.9.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at -0.3% sits 3.3pp below the 3.0% target, pushing the credibility gap to 89.3.
- Policy stance: The 3.0% policy rate implies a real rate near 3.3%, and the low behind-the-curve score of 36.8 shows no clear lag.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 48.7, with a Transpacific trade review and a transnational repression case in the feed.
- Watch item: The announced review of the Transpacific agreement could reopen trade and policy debate.
Peer context
Rank 8/20 in Latin America & Caribbean · 65th percentile
Region avg 51.9 · best 63.5 · worst 16.1
Ranked either side
- Dominican Republic 58.4
- Nicaragua 57.2
- Panama 56.5
- El Salvador 56.2
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -11.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +7.6%
- as of 2026-06-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 109.1 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 1.1 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 5.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 166.5K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -0.8% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.7 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 71.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $19,970 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 39.3% | 2001-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 55.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.