Country
Kazakhstan KAZ
NBK
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap76.4
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical49.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth45.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity62.2
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance44.3
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Kazakhstan sovereign credibility, in brief
Kazakhstan scores 55.1 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 2 in Central Asia, the 50th percentile of the region. The score has risen 1.9 points over the past seven days. CPI 9.2% vs 5.0% target (+4.2pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (55/100) | slightly improving.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctKazakhstan's moderate composite hides a wide credibility gap, with inflation well above its target band.
- Composite position: The score of 55.1 ranks second of two in Central Asia and sits 3.5 points below the regional average of 58.6.
- Credibility gap: The gap of 76.4 is high, driven by CPI at 9.2% against a 5.0% target band.
- Inflation vs target: Inflation runs 4.2 percentage points above the band, which keeps pressure on NBK credibility.
- Policy stance: The feed has no BIS policy rate or scored NBK statements, so behind-the-curve and communication scores are unavailable.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 49.8/100, with recent headlines dominated by armed-conflict coverage and repatriation of citizens from combat zones.
- Watch item: Track the next CPI print for any move toward the band, and any NBK decision that follows.
Peer context
Rank 2/2 in Central Asia · 50th percentile
Region avg 58.6 · best 62.2 · worst 55.1
Ranked either side
- Uzbekistan 62.2
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +134.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +11.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -1.3%
- as of 2026-03-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 182.1 | 2026-05-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -4.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 11.3 | 2026-03-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -0.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 6.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.8M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 14.4% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 57.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.9% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 62.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $14,692 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 20.9% | 2023-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 68.7% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.