Country
Jamaica JAM
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.1
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap83.6
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical45.6
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Growth40.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity44.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance54.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Jamaica sovereign credibility, in brief
Jamaica scores 55.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 11 of 20 in Latin America & Caribbean, the 50th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.6 points over the past seven days. CPI 7.5% vs 5.0% target (+2.5pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (56/100) | slightly improving.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctJamaica's credibility position is moderate, with inflation well above target and no policy data to test the central bank's response.
- Composite position: The 55.7/100 score ranks #11 of 20 in the region, just above the 51.9 average.
- Credibility gap: At 83.6/100, the gap is wide because CPI is 7.5%, 2.5pp above the 5.0% target.
- Policy stance: No policy-rate or statement data is scored, so behind-the-curve and communication scores are N/A.
- Geopolitics: Pressure reads 45.6/100, but most headlines are local crime stories, so the signal is weak.
- Near-term watch: The next CPI print against the 5.0% target, plus any central bank policy statement.
Peer context
Rank 11/20 in Latin America & Caribbean · 50th percentile
Region avg 51.9 · best 63.5 · worst 16.1
Ranked either side
- Panama 56.5
- El Salvador 56.2
- Trinidad and Tobago 55.6
- Bahamas, The 55.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +1.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -5.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 152.7 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 55.5K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -18.2% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 16.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.2% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 76.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $8,003 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 97.9% | 2020-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 68.5% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.