Country
Azerbaijan AZE
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d -0.0
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-03-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve43.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.6
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth53.0
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity80.1
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance41.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Azerbaijan sovereign credibility, in brief
Azerbaijan scores 62.9 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 9 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 74th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 5.5% vs 4.0% target (+1.5pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (63/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctAzerbaijan scores adequate on credibility, with inflation well above target and a thin positive real policy rate.
- Composite position: The 62.9 score ranks #9 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, above the regional average of 60.3.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 5.5% sits 1.5pp above the 4.0% target, which sets the maximum gap score of 100.
- Policy stance: The 6.5% policy rate leaves a real rate near 1pp, and the behind-the-curve score of 43.2 signals a moderate lag.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is mid-range at 48.6, but most headlines are 2020 war commemorations that likely overstate new conflict risk.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 4.0% target will show whether the real rate holds.
Peer context
Rank 9/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 74th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.4 · worst 47.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +87.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +14.4%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +4.1%
- as of 2026-03-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Current account (% GDP) | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 2.3 | 2026-03-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 317.1K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -11.2% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 79.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.7% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 17.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $7,411 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 6.4% | 2010-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 65.7% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.