Country
Egypt EGY
CBE
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d -0.2
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap60.9
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical43.7
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth53.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity42.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance35.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Egypt sovereign credibility, in brief
Egypt scores 48.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 35–50. That ranks it 9 of 10 in Middle East, the 20th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 14.5% vs 7.0% target (+7.5pp) — significant overshoot | credibility under pressure (49/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctEgypt's credibility is weak: inflation at 14.5% sits far above the 7% band, and the country ranks 9th of 10 in the region.
- Credibility gap: The gap scores 60.9, the main drag on a moderate composite of 48.8 against a regional average of 53.0.
- Inflation vs target: CPI is 7.5pp above the top of the 7.0% band.
- Policy stance: It cannot be scored because the data has no policy rate series and no scored central bank statements.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 43.7, with regional spillover from Gulf strikes and noisy event data.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 7% band will show whether the gap is narrowing.
Peer context
Rank 9/10 in Middle East · 20th percentile
Region avg 53.0 · best 61.1 · worst 17.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -11.6%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.7%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +6.3%
- as of 2025-12-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 290.7 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 18.6 | 2025-12-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 4.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.3 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 3.1M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -1.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 11.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 51.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.9% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 42.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $3,086 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 85.8% | 2007-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 48.0% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.