Country
Philippines PHL
BSP
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +3.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap79.9
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-06-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve39.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-02 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical45.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth27.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity61.4
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance44.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Philippines sovereign credibility, in brief
Philippines scores 50.3 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 5 of 5 in Southeast Asia, the 20th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 6.4% vs 3.0% target (+3.4pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (50/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctThe Philippines ranks last of five Southeast Asian peers, with a 50.3 composite and a wide credibility gap.
- Composite position: The 50.3 score trails the regional average of 57.8 and ranks fifth of five.
- Credibility gap: Inflation at 6.4% sits 3.4 points above the 3.0% target, pushing the gap score to 79.9.
- Policy stance: The 5.0% policy rate sits below CPI, a negative real rate of about 1.4%.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 45.0, driven mostly by security events rather than monetary news.
- Watch item: The next BSP decision and CPI print will show whether policy responds to inflation running above the band.
Peer context
Rank 5/5 in Southeast Asia · 20th percentile
Region avg 57.8 · best 62.6 · worst 50.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -22.2%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.4%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -8.8%
- as of 2026-06-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 135.4 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 9.9 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 602K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 1.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 8.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.3 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 66.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 2.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 2.4% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 26.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $4,171 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 43.4% | 2014-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 60.2% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.