Country
Ireland IRL
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap85.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve36.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.3
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth52.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity57.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance78.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Ireland sovereign credibility, in brief
Ireland scores 61.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 12 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 65th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 3.7% vs 2.0% target (+1.7pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (62/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctIreland's credibility is adequate at 61.5 and ranks #12 of 31, but inflation at 3.7% sits 1.7pp above target while the 2.5% policy rate lags it.
- Composite position: The 61.5 score sits just above the regional average of 60.3, ranking #12 of 31.
- Credibility gap: CPI runs 1.7pp above the 2.0% point target, the main drag, scoring 85.8 on the gap measure.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate sits about 1.2pp below inflation, so real policy is negative and behind the curve at 36.9.
- Communication: A 76.5 communication score is the strongest pillar and partly offsets the gap.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 48.3, but most flagged headlines are unrelated to macro policy, so the signal is weak.
- Watch item: The next Irish HICP print decides whether inflation is still well above target.
Peer context
Rank 12/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 65th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +3.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.8%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +5.5%
- as of 2026-05-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -20.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.4% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 107.4 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 6.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 180.0 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 2.9 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 10.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 12.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 106.6 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 351.6K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -22.2% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 0.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 111.1 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 240.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $131,592 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 66.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.