Country
Armenia ARM
CBA
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.1
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve42.5
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical47.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth34.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity39.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance48.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Armenia sovereign credibility, in brief
Armenia scores 55.2 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 1 of 2 in Caucasus, the 100th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 4.5% near 4.0% target — on target | credibility under pressure (55/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctArmenia's credibility gap is at the maximum even though inflation is only 0.5pp above target.
- Composite score: 55.2 of 100 ranks first of two in the Caucasus, just above the regional average of 54.1.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 4.5% sits 0.5pp above the 4.0% target, which sets the credibility gap score to 100/100.
- Policy stance: The 6.8% policy rate implies a real rate of about 2.3pp, and the behind-the-curve score is 42.5.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 47/100, driven by ten items that mark the anniversary of the 2020 Ganja strike, not new fighting.
- Watch item: Whether the next CPI print moves back inside the band.
Peer context
Rank 1/2 in Caucasus · 100th percentile
Region avg 54.1 · best 55.2 · worst 53.0
Ranked either side
- Georgia 53.0
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +5.6%
- as of 2026-03-01
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 165.4 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -8.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.9 | 2026-03-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 7.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 170.5K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 11.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 5.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.3 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 101.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 12.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.3% | 2023-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 66.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $9,474 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 47.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 65.3% | 2023-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.