Country
Thailand THA
BOT
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +1.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve34.6
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical44.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth48.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity85.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance45.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Thailand sovereign credibility, in brief
Thailand scores 60.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 5 in Southeast Asia, the 80th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.5% vs 2.0% target (+0.5pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (61/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctThailand's credibility gap is at its maximum: inflation sits above target while the policy rate sits below inflation.
- Composite position: Thailand scores 60.7 (adequate), ranking second of five in Southeast Asia and above the regional average of 57.8.
- Inflation vs target: CPI runs at 2.5%, 0.5pp above the 2.0% target, which drives the maximum credibility gap score of 100.
- Policy stance: The 1.0% policy rate is below CPI, a negative real rate, yet the behind-the-curve score is only 34.6.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure is mid-range at 44.4, and most recent events carry no macro signal; the visa-denial crackdown is the one exception.
- Watch item: The next BOT rate decision and CPI print will show whether policy tightens enough to close the gap.
Peer context
Rank 2/5 in Southeast Asia · 80th percentile
Region avg 57.8 · best 62.6 · worst 50.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +2.0%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -3.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +10.0%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 102.8 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 2.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 21.5 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.0 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 3.6M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 8.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 138.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 0.6% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 37.5% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $8,057 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 61.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 67.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.