Country
Belgium BEL
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap86.1
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve34.5
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical47.9
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth32.7
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity80.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance72.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Belgium sovereign credibility, in brief
Belgium scores 60.9 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 17 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 48th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.0% vs 2.0% target (+2.0pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (61/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctBelgium ranks mid-pack on credibility, held back by inflation running 2pp above target.
- Composite position: The score of 60.9 ranks 17th of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, just above the regional average of 60.3.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 4.0% sits 2.0pp above the 2.0% point target, driving an 86.1 credibility gap.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate sits 1.5pp below CPI, so real rates are negative, though communication scores a strong 76.5.
- Geopolitics: Pressure at 47.9 is moderate, with Brussels unrest on 10 October the main domestic item.
- Watch item: The next CPI print is the key test of whether the 2pp gap is narrowing.
Peer context
Rank 17/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 48th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Tajikistan 61.1
- Austria 61.0
- France 59.4
- Turkmenistan 59.1
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -0.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.8%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +0.2%
- as of 2026-03-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 104.0 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 6.7 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -4.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 89.5 | 2026-03-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 901.7K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 13.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 1.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 92.7 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | -0.3% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 152.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $60,750 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 56.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.