Country
Greece GRC
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap88.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve41.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.3
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth44.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity38.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance58.0
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Greece sovereign credibility, in brief
Greece scores 55.2 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 27 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 16th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.4 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.8% vs 2.0% target (+1.8pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (55/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctGreece's credibility gap is wide, and its composite of 55.2 ranks 27th of 31 in the region.
- Credibility gap: The 88.8 gap score reflects CPI at 3.8% against a 2.0% point target, 1.8pp above.
- Inflation vs target: Inflation runs nearly twice the target, so price pressure is not yet contained.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% rate sits below CPI, which implies a negative real rate, though its national source needs checking.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure scores 48.3, but the recent event feed is mostly local crime and historical items rather than macro shocks.
- Watch item: The next CPI print; a reading near 3.8% would keep the gap wide.
Peer context
Rank 27/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 16th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- North Macedonia 56.8
- Lithuania 56.3
- Kosovo 55.1
- Bosnia and Herzegovina 54.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +14.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -2.2%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +4.0%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.9% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 125.6 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -5.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 81.0 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 4.1 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 4.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 115.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.1M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -3.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.0 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 101.6 | 2026-04-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 0.0% | 2026-04-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 83.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $26,948 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 52.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.