Country
Finland FIN
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.4
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve42.1
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical49.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth36.4
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity73.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance84.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Finland sovereign credibility, in brief
Finland scores 64.9 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 5 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 87th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 2.2% near 2.0% target — on target | adequate credibility (65/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctFinland's credibility is adequate and above the regional average, but its policy stance is the weakest pillar.
- Composite position: Finland scores 64.9, ranking #5 of 31 regional peers and beating the 60.3 average.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 2.2% sits 0.2pp above the 2.0% point target, leaving a credibility gap score of 92.7.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate scores only 42.1 on behind-the-curve, the weakest measure in the set.
- Communication: The communication stance scores 76.5, a relative strength.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure is moderate at 49.4, driven mainly by Russia-NATO headlines.
- Watch item: The next CPI print; a move further above 2.0% would test the credibility gap.
Peer context
Rank 5/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 87th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Netherlands 66.6
- Luxembourg 65.6
- Moldova 64.3
- Portugal 64.1
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -46.3%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -5.1%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +0.6%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.5% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 102.0 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 5.6 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 103.9 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 3M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -44.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 1.6 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 95.7 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 6.0% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 83.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 9.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 9.6% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $56,149 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 60.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 2.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 2.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.