Country
Australia AUS
RBA
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -2.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap89.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve37.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-09-24 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.6
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth31.0
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity64.0
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance79.7
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Australia sovereign credibility, in brief
Australia scores 59.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 8 in G10, the 25th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 1.9 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.0% vs 2.5% target (+1.5pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (60/100) | slightly weakening.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctAustralia's credibility is moderate and below the G10 average, mainly because inflation runs well above target.
- Composite score: 59.6 of 100 ranks 7th of 8 G10 peers, 2.0 points below the 61.6 average.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 4.0% sits 1.5 points above the 2.5% target midpoint, scoring 89.8.
- Policy stance: The 4.3% policy rate scores 37.9 on behind-the-curve risk, a moderate reading that does not show a clear lag.
- Communication: No RBA statements were scored, so this factor is unavailable.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 46.6, but most listed events are domestic news, so the reading is weak.
- Watch item: The next CPI release will show whether the gap is narrowing.
Peer context
Rank 7/8 in G10 · 25th percentile
Region avg 61.6 · best 67.5 · worst 59.6
Ranked either side
- Switzerland 60.5
- Canada 59.7
- Japan 59.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -4.8%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +1.4%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -3.4%
- as of 2026-06-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 137.9 | 2026-07-01 | OECD |
| Current account (% GDP) | -2.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 183.0 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 20.2 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.7M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 15.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 1.6 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 45.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $65,130 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 57.9% | 2022-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 66.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.