Country
Hungary HUN
MNB
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve60.1
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-09-30 · coverage: gold
Communication37.3
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical47.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth48.2
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity71.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance54.8
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Hungary sovereign credibility, in brief
Hungary scores 62.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 3 of 9 in East Europe, the 78th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.4 points over the past seven days. CPI 1.3% vs 3.0% target (-1.7pp) — slightly below target | adequate credibility (63/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctHungary ranks third of nine in East Europe with an adequate composite score, held back by weak communication and a wide gap to target.
- Composite position: The 62.8 score sits 4.7 points above the regional average of 58.1.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 1.3% runs 1.7pp below the 3.0% band, so the risk is undershoot, not overshoot.
- Policy stance: The 5.5% policy rate implies a real rate near 4.2pp, a restrictive setting that leaves room to ease.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 47.5, and the only Hungary-specific event is a political dispute over BYD with an indirect policy link.
- Watch item: The next CPI print and rate decision will show whether the undershoot widens, while the 37.3 communication score remains the main drag.
Peer context
Rank 3/9 in East Europe · 78th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.4 · worst 45.5
Ranked either side
- Czech Republic 70.4
- Poland 63.6
- Serbia 62.6
- Bulgaria 56.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +10.8%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +5.1%
- as of 2026-05-01
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 236.9 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 4.2 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -28.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.0 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 97.4 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 520K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -7.0% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.5 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 106.8 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 4.9% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 140.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $25,907 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 82.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 61.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.