Tunisia TUN

Executive summary

Tunisia maintains an adequate credibility score of 61.8/100, but faces significant challenges due to a high credibility gap of 99.7/100, reflecting misalignment between policy and outcomes. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with recent events highlighting rising tensions, criminal incidents, and social unrest, contributing to a score of 48.1/100. Inflation remains at 5.9% under an implicit target regime, though the Central Bank lacks clear policy rate data and communication signals. Tunisia ranks second in North Africa but lags behind the regional average of 65.3. Investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments and the Central Bank’s response to inflation and stability risks, as these factors could impact macroeconomic credibility and policy effectiveness.

Peer context

Rank 2/2 in North Africa · 50th percentile

Region avg 54.8 · best 61.1 · worst 48.4