Country
Lithuania LTU
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.0
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap74.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve28.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical46.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth61.4
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity42.8
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance73.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Lithuania sovereign credibility, in brief
Lithuania scores 56.3 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 26 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 19th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 6.0% vs 2.0% target (+4.0pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (56/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctLithuania's moderate 56.3 score, ranked 26th of 31 in the region, reflects inflation running 4 points above target.
- Composite position: The score sits 4.0 points below the regional average of 60.3.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 6.0% against a 2.0% target drives a 74.0 gap score.
- Policy stance: A 2.5% rate implies a negative real rate, though lag risk is low at 28.2.
- Communication strength: A 76.5 score is the best component and partly offsets the gap.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 46.4, driven by drone incidents and a contested €500m anti-drone funding request.
- Near-term watch: The decision on the anti-drone funding request and the next CPI print.
Peer context
Rank 26/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 19th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Montenegro 57.0
- North Macedonia 56.8
- Greece 55.2
- Kosovo 55.1
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +8.2%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +8.8%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +3.4%
- as of 2026-08-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 105.9 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 0.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 1.0 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 110.5 | 2026-08-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 161.8K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -29.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 1.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 1.2 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 114.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 6.9% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 142.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $32,959 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 63.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.