Country
Vietnam VNM
SBV
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.8
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.5
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth75.2
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity65.8
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance35.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Vietnam sovereign credibility, in brief
Vietnam scores 62.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 1 of 5 in Southeast Asia, the 100th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.5% near 4.0% target — on target | adequate credibility (63/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctVietnam ranks first in Southeast Asia on credibility, but CPI runs 0.5pp above target and key policy data is missing.
- Composite score: The 62.6 score is adequate and ranks first of five regional peers, above the 57.8 average.
- Credibility gap: The gap score is 92.5 out of 100, high for a 0.5pp overshoot, so treat it as a flag rather than a verdict.
- Inflation vs target: CPI is 4.5% against a 4.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The SBV stance cannot be scored because policy-rate and central bank statement data are unavailable.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is mid-range at 48.8 out of 100, and most recent events have no monetary-policy link.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 4.0% target will show whether the overshoot is widening.
Peer context
Rank 1/5 in Southeast Asia · 100th percentile
Region avg 57.8 · best 62.6 · worst 50.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +10.2%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.3%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +2.8%
- as of 2025-10-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 107.5 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 6.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 26.2 | 2025-10-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 4.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 8.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.2M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -4.2% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 3.4% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.4 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 190.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 1.5% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 28.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $5,066 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 72.4% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.