Country
Moldova MDA
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve76.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical46.9
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth51.8
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity42.1
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance49.7
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Moldova sovereign credibility, in brief
Moldova scores 64.3 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 6 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 84th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 6.3% vs 5.0% target (+1.3pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (64/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctMoldova ranks sixth of 31 regionally on composite credibility, but inflation sits above its target band and policy reads as behind the curve.
- Composite position: The 64.3 score sits above the 60.3 regional average.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 6.3% is 1.3pp above the 5.0% target band, which drives the gap score to its 100 maximum.
- Policy stance: The 7.5% policy rate yields a behind-the-curve score of 76.2 out of 100.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 46.9, and the recent event feed carries little market signal.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 5.0% band will show whether the behind-the-curve rating persists.
Peer context
Rank 6/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 84th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.4 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Luxembourg 65.6
- Finland 65.0
- Portugal 64.1
- Estonia 63.6
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -35.7%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- 0.0%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 99.9 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -19.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.4 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 88.7K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -15.6% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 9.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 92.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 1.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 1.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 57.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $8,622 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 34.3% | 2023-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 72.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.