Country
Ukraine UKR
NBU
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap87.4
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve80.9
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical44.3
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth38.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity26.0
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance40.8
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Ukraine sovereign credibility, in brief
Ukraine scores 55.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 6 of 9 in East Europe, the 44th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 8.1% vs 5.0% target (+3.1pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (56/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctUkraine's credibility gap is wide: inflation runs 3.1 points above target while the 16% policy rate lags, leaving the NBU sixth of nine in East Europe.
- Composite position: The 55.8 score is moderate and trails the regional average of 58.1.
- Credibility gap: The 87.4 gap score is high, so the NBU's inflation record weakens its credibility.
- Inflation vs target: CPI is 8.1%, 3.1 points above the 5.0% target band.
- Policy stance: The behind-the-curve score of 80.9 suggests the NBU is reacting late to price pressure.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 44.3, and all ten logged events from 9 October score at the most hostile level.
- Watch item: The next NBU policy statement, since no scored communication yet tests its tone.
Peer context
Rank 6/9 in East Europe · 44th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.3 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -99.6%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.3%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -31.0%
- as of 2022-09-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +0.8%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 539.9 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -8.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 7.6 | 2022-09-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 1.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 71.6 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 903.9K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -7.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 6.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.0 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 77.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 9.8% | 2021-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 9.8% | 2021-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 101.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $5,866 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 58.7% | 2020-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 54.6% | 2021-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.