Guatemala GTM

Executive summary

Guatemala’s central bank sits in an adequate position with a composite score of 69.6, meeting its inflation target at 4% with no gap yet while its credibility gap signals the potential for tightening or policy recalibration as conditions evolve. However, geopolitical pressure has risen sharply to 47 out of 100 amid a flurry of U.S.-led security initiatives, drug‑trafficking prosecutions, and regional cooperation against organized crime that could translate into currency volatility and capital outflows. With no BIS policy rate data or explicit communication stance scored, managers must rely on macro fundamentals and risk alerts rather than forward guidance. In the broader Latin America & Caribbean landscape, Guatemala ranks #1 of 20, but its moderate score contrasts with peers’ lower averages, suggesting a relative resilience that could be leveraged if geopolitical tensions subside.

Peer context

Rank 1/20 in Latin America & Caribbean · 100th percentile

Region avg 56.3 · best 69.6 · worst 25.5