Country
Guatemala GTM
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve46.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical46.6
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth49.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity73.8
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance37.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Guatemala sovereign credibility, in brief
Guatemala scores 60.3 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 3 of 20 in Latin America & Caribbean, the 90th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 1.9 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.7% vs 4.0% target (-1.3pp) — slightly below target | adequate credibility (60/100) | slightly weakening.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctGuatemala ranks third of 20 in the region, but the Huité killings are the main near-term risk to its institutional standing.
- Composite position: The composite score is 60.3, adequate and above the regional average of 51.9.
- Credibility gap: The gap score is 92.7, the highest of the scored components.
- Inflation vs target: CPI is 2.7%, 1.3pp below the 4.0% target.
- Policy stance: The policy rate is 3.5%, and no central bank statements were scored.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is 46.6 after eight civilians were killed in Huité, Zacapa, and 107 soldiers were handed to prosecutors.
- Watch item: Track whether prosecutors charge the soldiers and whether the probe reaches senior commanders.
Peer context
Rank 3/20 in Latin America & Caribbean · 90th percentile
Region avg 51.9 · best 63.5 · worst 16.1
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -16.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.9 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 2.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 241K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -2.6% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 19.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.4 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 46.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 2.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 2.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 24.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $6,598 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 25.2% | 2013-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 64.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.