Country
Saudi Arabia SAU
SAMA
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.2
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap90.4
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-09-30 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical44.6
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth40.8
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity61.0
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance52.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Saudi Arabia sovereign credibility, in brief
Saudi Arabia scores 59.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 4 of 10 in Middle East, the 70th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 1.8% (implicit target) — credibility under pressure (59/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctSaudi Arabia scores moderate at 59.0, but the October 11 Riyadh airport attack now matters more than the composite.
- Composite position: The 59.0 score sits above the regional average of 53.1 and ranks #4 of 10, with a credibility gap of 90.4/100.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 1.8% fits the implicit target regime.
- Policy stance: No policy-rate or central bank statement data is scored, so stance cannot be assessed.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure reads 44.6/100 after an attack that Saudi authorities say killed 12 and injured over 300 at Riyadh airport.
- Watch item: Whether the US joins Saudi strikes on the Houthis, which would raise escalation risk.
Peer context
Rank 4/10 in Middle East · 70th percentile
Region avg 53.1 · best 61.1 · worst 17.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -88.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +15.9%
- as of 2026-10-11
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 105.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -2.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.9 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 10.1M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 15.6 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 57.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.2% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $34,537 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 67.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.