Country
Kenya KEN
CBK
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -1.2
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-09-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical45.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth42.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity50.2
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance29.2
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Kenya sovereign credibility, in brief
Kenya scores 57.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 13 of 43 in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 72nd percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 6.8% vs 5.0% target (+1.8pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (57/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctKenya's composite of 57.5 ranks 13th of 44 in Sub-Saharan Africa, but a maximum credibility gap points to inflation as the weak spot.
- Composite position: The score sits 8.2 points above the regional average of 49.3.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 6.8% runs 1.8pp above the 5.0% target, inside the CBK band.
- Policy stance: No policy-rate or statement data this run, so stance and behind-the-curve risk are unscored.
- Geopolitics: Pressure reads 45.0/100, driven by reports that 354 Kenyans were recruited to fight for Russia.
- Watch item: Repatriation efforts for citizens in the Russia-Ukraine war and any state emergency fund for them.
Peer context
Rank 13/43 in Sub-Saharan Africa · 72th percentile
Region avg 49.3 · best 61.7 · worst 14.1
Ranked either side
- Mali 57.8
- Guinea 57.5
- Cabo Verde 57.2
- Chad 56.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -16.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.9%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +6.7%
- as of 2026-04-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 154.9 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -2.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 1.3 | 2026-04-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 270.4K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 1.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.6 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 37.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.4% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 35.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $2,363 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 59.1% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.